What is Moore’s Law and can if affect Builders Software?
We often marvel at just how fast technological advancements just keep coming and coming. You no sooner hear of unimaginable advances in things like touch screens,cars, smart phones, 3D printers, than we are hearing how they can be purchased at your local Office Works for less than $1000.
Have you ever wondered why some of these technologies are just released in their most advanced form right from day 1. I mean, if they can produce a 3D printer for under $1000 now, why were they $5000 18 months ago. It’s not profiteering. This phenomenon can be explained by something known as Moore’s law.
This is commonly understood as “computing power doubles every 2 years”. That’s something of misquote but at a high level, it will probably do. Strictly speaking, Moore’s Law states that “the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately ever two years”. In the 60’s this rule was doubling every 12 months! It was revised to 2 years in 1975 and has been true ever since! It is also sometimes misquoted as every 18 months, which is a spin put on the rule by Intel. In fact it can be shown that by combining Moore’s Law as it related to transistors and advancements and reduction in costs of other forms of technology, general computing capability does in fact double every 18 months.
So at any given time we can expect twice as much from our computers and devices as we could just a year and half ago. This gives you an indication of why your new phone improves so much every time your contract expires and they send you a new one. That’s the easy analogy, but remember, this rule applies to all integrated circuits.
So is it any wonder, that advances is say, Driverless Cars, have advanced so far so quickly. With the integration of so many interacting technologies, all of which double in capacity every 18 months, technologies can go from completely impractical to almost commonplace in a very short space of time.
It has also been argued that the longer Moore’s Law continues to hold, the harder the chip manufacturers (Intel et al) work to make sure it continues to hold. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. This is fine for us. This is going to continue to mean builder’s get better phones, better tablets, smarter power tools and more lifestyle changing technologies for at least the next decade.
Some are reporting a slowing of Moore’s Law. Those at Intel say it will hold until 2017. Such statements have been made before – always just before a major advancement that sees us through another decade of unimaginable advancements.
It’s quite possible we can’t quite imagine the residential building software and the builder’s role, maybe just 6 – 10 years from now. But you can bet there are those that are trying.